Bitcoin has experienced several bear traps in its history. Often, these bear traps are followed by a huge price pump resulting in substantial profits for investors that don’t panic sell. As per the current price performance, analysts believe that BTC’s bear trap is here.
Usually, a bear trap may last a few months but in some instances it might take longer. Furthermore, CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over.” BTC may thus continue to trade sideways or dip further for the next 6 to 12 months. But analysts believe that it’s just the beginning of the bear trap and a potential bull run could follow afterwards.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Bear Trap Cycle
A bear trap cycle in crypto is a period where the prices of a cryptocurrency falls deceptively causing panic selling among retail investors before pumping hard afterwards. Usually, this period is characterized by a bearish price movement and huge selling pressure in the market.
Previously, the BTC bear trapping cycle happened in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021. According to a post by Wise Crypto, the market is now entering the same period in 2025. Usually, Bitcoin experiences a bull run for nine months according to a recent analysis by Finish, a pseudonymous crypto analyst. However, Finish highlighted that within the nine months, the bear trapping cycle occurs at the six month.
For context, he shared that in 2011, the bull run lasted nine months with the bear trapping cycle coming in at the sixth month. Additionally, the same happened in the 2017-2018 bull run as well as the 2021 bull run. “2025 cycle is the same, 6 months bear trap, then a new ATH,” Finish added.
What’s Causing the BTC Bear Trap?
The bear trap is caused by various factors as per the analysis by Finish. In 2013, the market experienced the bear trap due to the Silk Road shutdown as well as China’s Bitcoin ban.
For 2017, the ICO boom made Bitcoin rise in value making it reach $20,000. But, the launch of Bitcoin futures at CME exchange during the sixth month created a bear trap. Additionally, Tether (USDT) faced transparency challenges as the cycle re-occurred.
Similarly, in 2021, Bitcoin soared to $69,000. The six-month bear trapping cycle came as a result of a shift in sentiment around BTC as Elon Musk’s changed his stance around Bitcoin payments.
For the current bull cycle, Finish believes that the Bitcoin bear trapping cycle is as a result of policies implemented by US President Donald Trump. These policies have stirred a Trade War and international tensions hence influencing BTC negatively.
Bitcoin’s Current Price Performance
The data on Coinmarketcap shows that BTC is currently trading at $83,815.41. This price level marks a small surge of 1.49% on the day. A recovery of the $84,000 could spark a recovery for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.66 trillion reinforcing its position in the market. However, the trading volume of BTC depicts that market participants are refraining from trading activities. Bitcoin has recorded $24.52 billion over the last 24 hours with 0.02% decline on the day.
If buyers fail to assert their dominance in the current market, BTC could continue in a range-bound movement or dip further. Analysts are however divided between whether the dip in BTC will confirm bearish momentum or just another bear trap before BTC pumps to a new all-time high.
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