The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index now sits below 40, signaling that altcoins continue to underperform relative to Bitcoin. What’s next?
The CMC Altcoin Season Index is a tool that helps determine whether the market is in altcoin season or Bitcoin (BTC) season by tracking the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days. When 75% or more of these altcoins outperform Bitcoin, the market is considered to be in altcoin season.
In December 2024, the index hit 64, signaling the start of altcoin season. However, since the beginning of January, the index has remained just above 40 and is now showing signs of further decline. As of Feb. 17, the index stands at 36, indicating that Bitcoin is currently leading the market.
Despite the continuous market volatility, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable strength, staying above $96,000. The direction of the larger market may be determined by Bitcoin’s next action. Despite the overall optimistic tone, Maartunn, an analyst with CryptoQuant, seems to disagree.
Maartunn points out that the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator is signaling a bearish trend. This metric tracks Bitcoin’s movement between derivatives and spot markets. Typically, rising flows into derivatives indicate a bullish market. However, the current negative signal suggests that Bitcoin could face further resistance before a breakout.
On the other hand, altcoins have had difficulty, perhaps as a result of the increasing number of fresh launches. Liquidity tends to be spread thin when there are too many new products entering the market.
Bobby Ong, co-founder of CoinGecko, released data showing that over 600,000 tokens were created in January alone. Seemingly, investors are actively shifting their money between many different tokens, which is causing altcoin performance to suffer.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Ripple (XRP) are among the best-performing altcoins in the past 90 days, rising 735% and 143% respectively. On the flip side, many AI tokens have taken a major hit despite AI attracting the largest mindshare from crypto communities. RENDER (RNDR), Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), and Near Protocol (NEAR) are all down more than 40% in the past 90 days.
Historically, altcoin season typically follows Bitcoin’s consolidation or decline. The next big rise for altcoins will be determined in large part by macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and general market conditions.
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