According to crypto options traders, Bitcoin (BTC) is primed to break through its previous all-time high (ATH) regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November.
US Elections Results Not Consequential
As the US presidential elections inch closer, a slight change in tone can be observed among crypto options traders regarding its implications on the digital asset market.
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Notably, options traders are increasingly betting big on $80,000 BTC by the end of November, regardless of whether Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the election.
Commenting, David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, a crypto brokerage firm, said:
I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome. Our analysis shows that options activity surrounding the upcoming elections exhibits a notable topside-heavy bias.
Within crypto circles, the general belief is that a Trump win would likely benefit the digital asset ecosystem. At the same time, a Harris victory would likely continue the Biden administration’s perceived hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies.
However, Harris has attempted to shift this perception among crypto voters, as she recently promised to foster emerging technologies like AI and digital assets through a supportive regulatory framework.
Besides the US elections, other factors, such as interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and cooling inflation, can be attributed to increased optimism toward a new ATH for Bitcoin by the end of the year.
To recollect, Bitcoin hit its current ATH value of $73,797 in March 2024, largely buoyed by the anticipated demand for the digital asset following the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
However, BTC dropped to $53,956 in September due to rising interest rates, before the Fed announced a rate cut. Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, trading just above $66,000.
Bitcoin Put To Call Ratio Trending Lower
According to data compiled by Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by reported trading volume, the put-to-call ratio is trending lower toward the end of the year.
Essentially, a lower put-to-call ratio means that more traders are buying call options than put options, indicating a strong belief that BTC will likely surge in the coming days.
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Yev Feldman, co-founder at SwapGlobal, an institutional-grade crypto options trading platform, notes:
We see traders buy calls near 68k and puts near 66k, in other words, many continuously position and reposition for a breakout for either end. There is limited reason to collapse downwards after the election, so up makes more sense.
Additionally, for BTC call options expiring on November 29, open interest is largely concentrated around $80,000, with $70,000 being the second most favored strike price. For call options expiring on December 27, strike prices are between $80,000 and $100,000.
Recent reports suggest that retail interest in BTC has been on a gradual upward trajectory, indicating that the market is in risk-on mode after being range-bound for the majority of the year. Lawant concluded:
This indicates that investors are leveraging the options market more as a tool for capturing potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside risks.
Concerns about a potential downside persist due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and lingering doubts about Bitcoin’s halving earlier this year. BTC trades at $66,696 at press time, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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