The forthcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving is just about 100 days away and though significant, many in the industry are currently carried away by the hype surrounding the potential approval for a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) product from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Important Bitcoin Halving Cycles
Top crypto market expert, Rekt Capital has, however, taken the time to uncover the key Bitcoin halving cycles traders can watch out for as the months to the halving event roll by.
The first cycle in this series was named the Pre-Halving period which is the last 100 days to the ultimate halving. Here, Rekt Capital believes the final buying price or bargain opportunity will be presented as any drawdown during this period will be accompanied by huge returns on investments in the months post-halving cycle.
The second cycle will usher in the “Pre-Halving rally” that will commence approximately 60 days after the halving event. In this cycle, the analysts revealed that some investors will actually “Buy the Hype” to “Sell the News.” This category of buyers will arguably trigger the first post-halving retracement as they take their profits before the event.
This cycle now births the 3rd cycle of “Pre-Halving retrace.” Going by Bitcoin’s price history, the pre-halving retrace of 2016 ushered in a 38% deep correction while that of 2020 ushered in a 20% deep retracement.
The next cycle after this will be the re-accumulation phase that will come months after the retracement era. This era might resemble the crypto winter as significant results may not be recorded for a long time. However, the last phase dubbed the “Parabolic Uptrend” phase will be worth it as the true impact of the halving will now be showcased in full bloom.
The Bitcoin ETF Impact
While the cycle description from Rekt Capital is relatable going by the Litecoin halving that took place in August 2023, the likelihood of bagging a spot Bitcoin ETF approval might change the narrative this time around.
Depending on the timeline the approval is secured, should the industry be graced with the approval over the next few weeks this January as speculated, the institutional embrace and liquidity that may flow into the market might invalidate the cycles, especially the Pre-halving retrace and the re-accumulation phase which may be significantly shortened.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at a price of $42,834.13, up 0.53% in the past 24 hours.
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